By Swapan Dasgupta
By the afternoon of Thursday, December 20, two
things will be pretty apparent to the people of India.
First, it will be clear whether or not the
electorate of Gujarat continues to retain faith in the leadership of Chief
Minister Narendra Modi. With a 70 per cent turnout (in Phase 1 of the poll), a
spirited election campaign that was centred on the state Government’s
performance over 11 years, and little chance of a hung Assembly, the answer to
this question should be unambiguous.
The second issue will touch on the future of Indian
politics. If the BJP is successful in meeting the combined onslaught of the
liberal intelligentsia, the mainstream media, the local leadership of the
Vishwa Hindu Parishad, the Gujarat Parivartan Party, the Central Government and
the local Congress, there will be compelling pressure on the National
Democratic Alliance (which, naturally, includes the BJP) to discard the absurd
idea of ‘collective leadership’ and anoint Modi as its prime ministerial candidate
for the next general election.
I use the phrase ‘compelling pressure’ with some
pre-mediation because I am almost certain that the process of declaring Modi
the first among equals will not be without hiccups. Such a momentous step in a
polity where succession planning is both non-existent and bereft of
institutional structures is never without hiccups. Assuming Modi passes the
December 20 test, the coming months will be delight for the media as a
multitude of veterans, rivals and unnamed ‘sources’ will air their misgivings
of such an ‘extreme’ step.
There will invariably be questions raised about
Modi’s suitability to move from local to national politics—as if participation
in state politics automatically negates a politician’s ability to play in a larger
arena. There will be doubts raised over Modi’s temperament: can a man used to
being the supreme boss of a one-party government adapt to the infuriating
complexities of coalition politics? There will also be the Nagpur question:
will the RSS leadership allow such a towering individual to put the parent
organisation in the shade? And, finally, there will be the inevitable Muslim
question: can India be ruled by a man whose very name is anathema to the Muslim
minority, at least outside Gujarat?
None of these posers can be brushed aside as
irrelevant. No doubt the issues will be raised by people who have been opposed
to Modi for the past 10 years and who are still hopeful that a ‘silent
undercurrent’ will stop the Chief Minister’s juggernaut in Gujarat itself. But
they are powerful people who wield considerable clout in the Establishment of
what Modi derisively calls the ‘Delhi Sultanate’. For them, Modi is not merely
someone they disagree with; he is an enemy. They would rather countenance the
indefinite continuation of Gandhi-Vadra rule and the perpetuation of cronyism
than imagine an India in the hands of an outlander from Vadnagar. Modi
threatens their ‘idea of India’.
What we have witnessed and perhaps will continue to
witness till the last voter in the next general election has pressed the EVM
button is a form of class war. It is a war not about economic philosophies or
even about something as nebulous as modernity. Looked at from every conceivable
angle, the Gujarat over which Modi has presided for the past 11 years is a
showcase for resurgent India. Nor is there any fear that Modi will pave the way
for some perverse, backward-looking and insular society. Trade, technology and
even globalisation have been central to the Gujarati mind, a reason why that
society never took very kindly to the Nehruvian way.
No, the class war centres on the exercise of power,
control and clout. A small example may suffice. Last week, a group of
influential media people—known in rarefied circles as the Limousine Liberals—travelled
to Gujarat, courtesy an international investment house, to do a spot of
election tourism. In the recent past they travelled to Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and
West Bengal to observe the ‘real India’. Anyway, to cut a long story short, the
Limo Libs are always given an audience by the leaders of the main parties. In
Gujarat, the Congress rolled out the red carpet for them and I am informed (but
am yet to verify) that the party’s heir apparent also found time to exchange
notes with the group. The only exception was Modi. He encountered them at one
of his public rallies, acknowledged them with a polite Namaste and went about
his main business.
It is not for me to say whether Modi missed an
opportunity to charm those outside his natural constituency—they are itching to
be wooed—or whether he thought that spending time with those who are
intractably opposed to him the individual is a waste of time. The point is that
the likes of the Limo Libs are inherently ill at ease with a man who challenges
the existing power structure without inhibition and with aggression.
Sunday Pioneer, December 16, 2012
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