With the party’s rank and file squarely behind Narendra Modi, a parting of ways with Nitish Kumar may now be impossible to prevent
By Swapan Dasgupta
For the past two months, India’s powerful
Left-liberal Establishment has been in a state of dejection on account of
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi.
First, following his third consecutive election
victory in Gujarat last December, Modi’s tag of untouchability was
ceremoniously cut off. Corporate India, diplomatic missions and particularly
the media which had hitherto shunned him, now joined the aspirational classes
in seeing him as a possible saviour, a leader whose steely determination could
enable India to realise its full potential in a globalised community. For the
past month, Modi has carpet bombed the country with his infectious ‘India can
do it’ message. He has certainly found many new converts but, more important,
he has aroused considerable curiosity in parts of India that hitherto had only
a hazy idea about the man. In the process, he has galvanised the BJP
rank-and-file and given them a new-found political purpose.
Secondly, contrary to a pre-conceived notion of what
constituted Modi’s appeal, the Gujarat Chief Minister has focussed exclusively
on the twin themes of economic development and governance. True, his
quasi-Thatcherite message of a minimum but purposeful state has been contested.
But despite the criticisms of the “Gujarat model”, Modi has set the terms of an
emerging debate. He has carefully steered the focus away from his earlier
reputation as an icon of sectarian politics and into bread and butter
issues—themes where he clearly outscores the Congress’ would-be challenger
Rahul Gandhi.
It is in this context that a nervous Establishment
has breathed a sigh of relief at Bihar Chief Minister’s robust intervention at
the Janata Dal (United) convention last Sunday. In devoting almost his entire
speech to the importance of a Prime Minister with unblemished “secular”
credentials and a more inclusive development strategy, Nitish Kumar
unambiguously expressed his big ‘No’ to the idea of Modi as a prime ministerial
candidate of the National Democratic Alliance. In short, as a long-term ally of
the BJP, Nitish resumed the debate on Modi as a possibly divisive figure, a man
who couldn’t carry both the pugree-wallas and the topi-wallas.
That Nitish’s tirade against Modi stemmed from his
long-standing belief that the latter’s presence in Bihar would be a liability
is well known. With Muslim voters accounting for more than 16 per cent of the
electorate, Nitish was mindful of the Muslim antipathy to Modi. A Modi-led NDA,
he believed, would lead to aggressive Muslim voting to defeat anyone associated
with the BJP, a situation that could potentially benefit his main rival Lalu
Yadav. Nitish has also believed that if he was perceived as the man who punctured
the Modi balloon, it would lead to Muslim voters seeing him (rather than Lalu
Yadav) as the great champion of the community. And, if the RJD’s Muslim support
was substantially eroded, it would make the JD(U) the dominant party in Bihar,
much like the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa. Nitish was in effect attempting a
socio-political realignment that would either nullify his dependence on the BJP
or even allow him to break with it altogether.
In his private negotiations with the BJP, the Bihar
Chief Minister has steadfastly maintained that he values the NDA and that he
would have no problem if the BJP chose a leader who is more in the Atal Behari
Vajpayee mould. Other JD(U) leaders have stated that the party is completely
agreeable to L.K. Advani being given another throw of the dice in 2014.
On the face of it, this may appear to be a case of a
coalition partner counselling the BJP against a decision that could potentially
be inimical to his local interests. However, it is not as straight forward as
it may seem. There are enough grounds to believe that Nitish’s public disavowal
of Modi and his implied threat to quit the NDA was a consequence of his belief
that his intervention would muddy the waters for the Gujarat Chief Minister
and, in the process, leave the BJP deeply divided. It is a matter of conjecture
whether Nitish was actually egged on by some BJP leaders to be assertive in his
rejection. But there is no doubt that it was silently welcomed by those BJP
leaders who are uncomfortable with the idea of Modi. The needle of suspicion
invariably points to one individual.
In politics it is impossible to anticipate every
outcome. Nitish, it would seem, grossly over-estimated the magnitude of the
misgivings over Modi inside the BJP. The rapidity of the BJP’s sharp rebuttal
of what it saw as gratuitous advice may well have taken him by surprise.
Equally, it is unlikely he anticipated the sharp reaction of BJP karyakartas
who are convinced that their best hope for 2014 is Modi.
A large part of the BJP rank-and-file anger against
Nitish may well have been emotional, but it is worth remembering that the BJP
has always depended on emotions for political motivation. In 2005, it was the
emotional antipathy to Advani’s comments at the Jinnah mausoleum that led to
the titan being displaced.
Nitish’s anti-Modi utterances have had the same
impact. First, it forced the BJP leadership to overrule the do-nothing leaders
and come out strongly in defence of Modi. In short, it once again reaffirmed
Modi’s status as first among equals. Secondly, Nitish’s December deadline has
egged on the more enthusiastic sections of the Modi fan club to demand an end
to the ambivalence over the choice of the BJP’s public face for 2014. It is
becoming increasingly clear to all the BJP stakeholders that any attempts to
deny Modi his overriding role will lead to a grassroots revolt. Finally,
Nitish’s Sunday speech which was preceded by many sniper shots directed at
Modi, has vitiated BJP-JD(U) relations to the point of no return. It may prove
extremely difficult, if not impossible, to prevent a formal parting of ways in
Bihar in weeks rather than months.
The Hindu, April 18, 2013
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