By Swapan Dasgupta
On the afternoon of December 8, the principal
interest of ‘political’ India will be on the Congress-Bharatiya Janata Party
encounter in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi. If the BJP
manages a conclusive victory by both holding its own and wresting at least one
state from the Congress, it is likely to remove many obstacles in the path of
Narendra Modi’s prime ministerial overdrive. If, on the other hand, the
Congress somehow manages a 2-2 draw or even succeeds in wresting Chhattisgarh
from the BJP, it will signal to its supporters that all is not lost and that
the UPA remains in the 2014 election race.
The natural focus on the fortunes of the Congress
and BJP should not, however, divert attention from a fascinating sub-plot of
the Assembly election, in Delhi at least: the emergence of the Aam Aadmi Party
as a possible third alternative.
As I see it, counting day on December 8 will be
marked by three possible outcomes for the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP that was born
as an offshoot of Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption crusade and battle for a Janalokpal
Bill.
For the new entrant to electoral politics, the most
spectacular outcome would lie in its ability to translate the 28 per cent or so
of popular votes—as predicted by the CSDS-Lokniti-CNN-IBN pre-poll survey last
month—into seats. This would mean that neither the BJP nor the Congress will be
in a position to form a government in the National Capital. For the AAP, which
is barely a year old in electoral politics, this would be a colossal
achievement. It would indicate that there is a meaningful space available in
large parts of India for what is being flaunted as “alternative politics”.
The second scenario that could be moderately
satisfying for the AAP would lie in its ability to secure a small toehold in
the Delhi Assembly. Although the third
party wouldn’t be able to avert a Congress or BJP victory—and, in fact, would
actually contribute to the outcome by playing spoiler—it would have carved out
a niche for itself in the civic life of Delhi. In other words, the AAP would
have laid the foundations of a potentially larger role for itself in politics. Depending
on how it conducted itself in the next few years, it would be in a position to
either advance or shrink into irrelevance.
For the AAP, the most disheartening outcome would
lie in its inability to either win seats or prevent any party from securing a
clear mandate. In the event of such a result, we can almost visualise tearful
scenes in the AAP offices on the realisation that the stupendous energy and
enthusiasm displayed by its youthful volunteers hasn’t proved contagious. The
sense of disappointment is likely to prompt its idealistic supporters to either
eschew electoral politics altogether and revert to NGO-type activism or turn to
more extremist causes.
At this stage of the campaign, when the AAP is
experiencing both the exhilaration of possible popular support and the
murkiness that is associated with securing votes, it is hazardous to predict
which of these outcomes is most likely. If the feedbacks from the Congress and
BJP camps are any indication, it would seem that the support for the AAP is
extremely patchy and not sufficiently concentrated to enable the party to win
seats. As the campaign gathers momentum, it is becoming sufficiently clear that
many AAP candidates, while exemplary individuals, lack both the local
connections and the organisational networks to fully convert goodwill into votes.
The absence of enough candidates with local links could explain why there was
an attempt by the AAP leadership to try and rope in individuals from
established parties who were disappointed at not getting the party nomination.
This departure from the high idealism of “alternative politics” was revealing
and suggested that purity and saintliness are not always practical in
democratic politics.
Not that these occasional lapses should divert
attention from the fact that regardless of the actual results of the Delhi
election, the AAP has had a visible impact on the political culture. The more
established political parties can ignore the larger AAP impact at their own
peril.
The most profound impact has been in the AAP thrust
on the personal integrity of the political leadership. The BJP may not open
acknowledge it but it is undeniable that its midway course correction in
discarding Vijay Goel and replacing him with Dr Harshvardhan was a direct
consequence of the AAP’s spirited quest for ethical politics. Goel, a former
minister in the Atal Behari Vajpayee government, was no doubt an energetic
leader with a taste for razzmatazz. Unfortunately for him, he was perceived as
a politician who was cut from the same cloth as Pramod Mahajan. Compared to
him, Dr Harshvardhan, a low-key medical practitioner from East Delhi with a
fierce reputation for personal integrity, was regarded as someone who provided
a meaningful alternative to the Congress’ perceived mega-corruption. If the BJP
manages to prevail in Delhi with its new chief ministerial candidate, much of
the credit must go the AAP for forcing a change of guard at the eleventh hour.
Unfortunately, however, the AAP impact has been
confined to the top of the political pile. In the matter of choosing local
candidates, both the national parties have kept a sharp eye on the winning
potential of individuals.
An associated feature of the AAP impact is in the
realm of political funding. By upholding the sanctity of transparent, voluntary
contribution by individuals, the AAP has taken a modest step in the right
decision. Political parties are disproportionately dependant on cash
contributions by either corporates and local business or kickbacks from
government contracts to contribute to the larger process of clean politics. The
AAP example may actually force the mainstream parties into taking some steps
towards transparent fund collection.
Finally, in using the energy and commitment of its
volunteers to spread its message, the AAP has definitely contributed towards
imaginative, low-cost electioneering. It has relied more on innovative methods
and direct voter contact than the established political parties whose appeal to
voters is more linked to the mass media and are, consequently, more impersonal.
In particular, the rediscovery of old-style persuasion is a positive trend and
could, in the long run, contribute towards reducing the high levels of
alienation that ordinary people have for politics and politicians.
Conventional wisdom and past experience suggest that
the transition from a socio-political movement to a political party can be
extremely troublesome. The impact of
Anna Hazare’s fast in Delhi’s Jantar Mantar and Ram Lila maidan was
considerable and played a huge role in destroying the credibility of the UPA-2
Government. If there are times the re-election of a Congress-led government at
the Centre seems near-impossible in 2014, much of the credit goes to the
veteran Gandhian who highlighted its departure from ethical politics. However,
the decision of the activists who organised the Anna movement in Delhi to
branch out to electoral politics has proved more contentious, not least because
there is a definite impression that the anti-corruption platform is a shield
for political agendas that would otherwise not appeal to the middle classes.
The AAP is a coalition of very disparate elements who are awaiting the outcome
of the Delhi polls to reveal their true colours. Post-December 8, the further
fragmentation of this amorphous body of activists seems unavoidable.
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