CITIZENS WHO MATTER - Thoughtful governance has given Odisha’s people confidence

By Swapan Dasgupta

Casual visitors to Bhubaneswar, the administrative centre of Odisha, may be struck by its resemblance to the company towns that sprung up in the 1950s and 1960s when space was not an unaffordable luxury. Its remarkably well-maintained grand public buildings—the Secretariat, the High Court, the Assembly, et al—reflect the unbridled optimism and the aesthetics of the 1950s. Its rows of whitewashed official accommodation for the upper echelons of the bureaucracy, ministers and MLAs are generously spacious but don’t exude the imperial arrogance of the bungalows of the British Raj. And, to add to the enlightened ‘bush shirt’ ambiance of a disappearing age, there are many tastefully landscaped public parks, at least two outstanding museums (including the Natural History Museum which, last week, unveiled the 47 feet-long skeleton of a Baleen whale that had beached in Gopalpur) and the Rabindra Mandap which hosted performances by Shubha Mudgal and Carnatic vocalist T.M. Krishna last week.

In the past 15 years, a non-official Bhubaneswar has also emerged, driven by the brash energy of IT companies and private educational institutions. With the mining boom having produced a visible spurt in consumer spending, Bhubaneswar now conveys the image of a purposeful city, one that has easily overtaken neighbouring Cuttack in the surge to modernity. Compared to India’s booming metros, Odisha’s Capital may be a relatively small town but it has long discarded the image of being a sleepy town.  

There is a quiet, understated regional pride that permeates today’s Odisha but which is not often appreciated in the citadels of metropolitan derision. Thanks to a drastic overhaul of the state’s finances which has seen chronically deficit Budgets being turned into surplus, Odisha is no longer dependant on the Centre’s charity for everything. This has meant that the Chief Minister doesn’t have to constantly rush to the National Capital with begging bowl in hand. Elaborate welfare schemes, such as the Rs 2 rice scheme for the poor, the special assistance for the Kalahandi-Bolangir-Koraput region and programme for rural housing, can be financed from the state’s own exchequer, a detail that adds to the state’s self-esteem.

The extent to which a well-functioning and stable government can both empower and boost the self-confidence of a people is often not fully grasped by the metropolitan mindset. The perception of Odisha as a backwater that can either be taken for granted or used as a toy, regrettably, still exists. The only difference is that Odisha now refuses to be taken for granted.

A recent controversy, relatively small in nature, highlighted the change. This week, a minor storm erupted over the decision of the Governor, in his capacity as the Chancellor of the Ravenshaw University in Cuttack, to award an honorary doctorate to a notable from Delhi whose connections to Odisha were both tenuous and, it later emerged, somewhat contentious. Following protests, the honour was withdrawn. But, the Governor, it emerged, had made a habit of doling out honorary doctorates from local universities where he is the Chancellor to friends in the legal profession in Delhi. So blatant was the cronyism that special convocations of Utkal University and Sambhalpur University were held at Odisha Bhavan in New Delhi because some of those who had been honoured didn’t bother with the convocations in Odisha.

That the discretionary powers of Delhi’s foremost representative in Bhubaneswar is now called upon to account for his flights of whimsy may appear surprising to those who still cling on to patronising stereotypes of ‘simple’ Odiyas who can be taken for a ride. The surprise is unwarranted. Since 1999, the state has elected a regional party to power, each time with a thumping majority. Unlike the 1980s and 1990s, when Biju Patnaik and J.B. Patnaik alternated as Chief Minister and kept Odisha very much in the purview of national politics, the story has undergone a major modification.

Naveen Patnaik, the political innocent who was thrust into public life in 1997 after Biju babu’s death, has no doubt built on his father’s formidable legacy. But whereas the larger than life Biju babu always had one eye firmly focussed on national politics, his political heir has progressively eased himself out of a battlefield where he was only a bit player. When he was elected to the Lok Sabha from Aska in a by-election in 1997, Naveen had fought on a Janata Dal ticket. By 1998, he dispensed with the national party which was in a shambles and established the Biju Janata Dal, a regional party. Although he joined the National Democratic Alliance and had an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party in Odisha, he extricated himself from that entanglement in 2009 and won a spectacular third-term victory. Unlike Gujarat and Karnataka where the BJP had successfully marginalised the remnants of the old Janata Dal, Naveen obliterated the BJP in Odisha.

At one level, Naveen has demonstrated a ruthless streak. At every step along his political journey, he has brushed away potential challengers inside the party and banished them into the wilderness. Odisha is littered with the political corpses of grandees who underestimated the political dexterity of the Chief Minister. The latest was Piyari Mohan Mohapatra, the proverbial juju man of Odisha politics. His coup attempt in May was snuffed out by public outrage. Naveen, away in England when the conspirators struck, was victorious in absentia.

However, my contention is that while Naveen’s guile and his reputation for personal integrity may have played its part in ensuring his dominance over the BJD, his political longevity owes much to the wider shifts in Odisha’s public consciousness. The Chief Minister has perfected the art of the regional party. Although personally a cosmopolitan who is naturally at ease in the most rarefied of circles on both sides of the Atlantic, not to speak of Lutyens’ Delhi, his political priorities are determined solely by his state. If there is a national intervention, it is because there is an Odisha dimension to it.

Delhi was always unfamiliar territory to a state where media consumers account for only 65 per cent or so of the population. By narrowing the focus of concerns to what happens in Bhubaneswar and the districts, Naveen may well be accused of enhancing the provincialisation of his state. However, the truncation of political boundaries can also be viewed as evidence of greater empowerment. What the average, concerned citizen of Odisha thinks of the goings-on in Delhi’s North and South Block has no impact. But his perceptions have a direct bearing on Bhubaneswar. By prioritising the local over the national, Naveen has offset the sense of despondency and alienation that would otherwise have crept into one of India’s most backward states. By making democracy provincial, Naveen has, ironically, enriched it substantially.

In recent months there has been intense speculation over how the BJD will conduct itself in the event of a hung Parliament in 2014. It is hazardous to prophecy the options Naveen will exercise, apart from saying that he will not support a Congress-led formation. But judging from the regional mould in which he operates, my guess is that he will prefer to also stay out of any NDA regime.  He will be content observing from the sidelines and bargaining fiercely for local benefits. Those anxious for his party’s participation must make him an offer so magnificently attractive that refusing it would mean letting Odisha down.  

The only effective pressure point for Naveen will be from below, from a people who, after 15 years, have the self-assurance to play on the national stage as citizens who matter. 

The Telegraph, August 17, 2012

Regional parties take Centre stage

By Swapan Dasgupta

In explaining his party's endorsement of PA Sangma for the post of President of India, Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, has been highlighting the very limited objectives of a regional party in a State where one-third of the population is tribal.

There is, he has insisted, no need to detect a national design behind his announcement earlier this week: it is merely his party's modest bid to stress the need for a Rashtrapati from a marginalised community.

Patnaik's disclaimer of a larger political purpose need not be discounted. However, when his announcement leads to simultaneous support from the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, there are reasons to believe that an apparently small gesture may have larger, albeit unintended, consequences. After all, even if Patnaik is content to see things through a Bhubaneshwar prism, there is nothing to suggest that Ms Jayalalithaa also views her endorsement of Sangma as something born out of purely local considerations.

Regardless of how the race for Rashtrapati Bhavan pans out, the joint Patnaik-Jayalalithaa initiative constitutes a significant departure from the way national politics has hitherto been playing out. For a start, it was two regional parties, each enjoying steamroller majorities in their own States, which were first off the starting block. In the past, the regional parties were happy playing the role of extras in a contest that involved the two national parties and their formal allies. On this occasion, both the Congress and the BJP have been gripped by uncertainty over who to promote as their presidential candidate. Neither has the strength and capacity to be able to exercise their preferred option, and both are reluctant to cut their losses and settle for the next best course.

For a long time, the BJP nurtured hopes of persuading former President APJ Abdul Kalam to run. There are reasons to believe that Kalam wasn't entirely averse, if the arithmetic was right. However, Sushma Swaraj's indiscretion put an end to this plan. After all, there was little chance of the Samajwadi Party endorsing a candidate whose name was first proposed by the BJP.

Ever since the Kalam option was unexpectedly snuffed out, the BJP and, for that matter, the NDA as a whole has been groping for a name that would attract wider support. Unable to hone in on a name, a section of the BJP and NDA has been hoping that the Congress nominates Pranab Mukherjee who, by virtue of his exceptional standing in the political class, can be the consensus candidate. Indeed, I would go so far as to say that the Finance Minister enjoyed more support from the BJP than from within his own party. The whisper that Sonia Gandhi was somehow averse to Mukherjee made Congress loyalists wary of proffering his name openly. Ironically, the alleged scepticism of 10 Janpath only added to Mukherjee's appeal in the Opposition.

Given this backdrop, why did Patnaik and Jayalalithaa jump the gun and choose Sangma, a man whose claim was disregarded by his own party chief Sharad Pawar? I would hazard the guess that the two Chief Ministers detected the prevailing confusion in the non-Congress ranks and chose to force their hand. In the process, they have sent out a much larger message: that the initiative for both leading and organising the anti-Congress forces has passed to the emerging Federal Front.

This has implications for the BJP which has seen itself as the principal opposition to the Congress and the party most likely to gain the most from the decimation of the UPA in the coming elections. Recent events have made it quite clear that the BJP is reaching saturation point and that its ability to extend itself to areas outside its traditional strongholds is limited.

Secondly, the BJP has shown that it suffers from both incoherence and ineffectiveness at the top. Its strong regional leaders are increasingly finding the national leadership to be unresponsive to developments in the localities. Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has, for all practical purpose, withdrawn his recognition of national president Nitin Gadkari. In Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje has shown that she will not take Delhi's insolence quietly. And BS Yeddyurappa appears to be firming up his plans to set up a regional party — a move that will set the BJP back in Karnataka by at least 20 years. The net result of these developments is that the BJP's capacity for political initiative and improvisation is becoming increasingly limited —  without some of its leading actors even being aware of it.

Finally, at a time when the national parties are in a state of crisis, occasionally verging on paralysis, the regional parties —  regardless of whether they are nominally attached to a larger coalition or unattached —  are beginning to seize the initiative. If Patnaik and Jayalalithaa or, for that matter, some other regional party, hadn't unilaterally seized the initiative, it would have set the stage for the Congress to produce a dumb rabbit out of the hat at the very last minute and benefit from the confusion on the other side. Now that has become difficult. Has Sangma's entry ensured Pranab babu's nomination?

I may be guilty of over-interpretation, but last week's developments suggest that the leadership of the anti-Congress space is passing into the hands of the regional players. The BJP will be in the supporting cast.

For the Congress, that's not good news.

Sunday Pioneer, May 20, 2012

Naveen hints at a new alignment

By Swapan Dasgupta

Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik is not known to be demonstrative. Low key and media shy, he is not careful to not say a word more than is strictly necessary. Even after three successive election victories, he remains an unknown entity to the political world outside Odisha.

Under the circumstances, Patnaik’s decision to be media-friendly last Friday to articulate his opposition to the National Counter-Terrorism Centre must be taken with exceptional seriousness. It is not merely that Patnaik was uncharacteristically loquacious and thoroughly enjoying his sharp attack on the UPA Government’s “arrogance” in not consulting the states, his intervention seemed well coordinated with the opposition expressed by Mamata Banerjee, J.Jayalalthaa and Chandrababu Naidu. It almost seemed that these non-UPA, non-NDA chief ministers and leaders had appointed Patnaik their spokesperson for taking forward the attack on the Centre for its violation of the federal spirit of the Constitution. Indeed, when directly asked by Times Now about his intervention signalling the beginning of a new grouping separate from the UPA and NDA, Patnaik indicated that it was a good idea.

Before rushing to any premature speculation about another Third Front that will replicate the United Front which emerged between 1996 and 1998, it may be instructive to look at the ground realities. Apart from Mamata who is in alliance with the Congress and whose principal opponent is the CPI(M), the others are in direct competition with either the Congress or a UPA partner. The BJP is not a major factor in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and the non-Telengana region of Andhra Pradesh. In Orissa, the BJP has a foothold in western Orissa but, as the 2009 election indicated, it is still not in a position to translate its support into seats without an alliance with the BJD.

With the BJP showing little signs of any meaningful progress in the four states, it stands to reason that the principal opponent of these regional players—who between them have the potential of winning anything between 80 and 100 seats in a future Lok Sabha election—is the Congress. The BJP may be a vocal opponent of Patnaik in Odisha but overall, it has little stake in these four states. The NDA tally in these four states in 2009 was zero.  

This has implications for the future. If the decline of the Congress witnessed in the municipal elections of Maharashtra represent a “national mood”, as suggested by Sushma Swaraj, it stands to reason that the regional grouping would be more inclined to opt for the NDA than the UPA in a post-2014 scenario.

Between 1998 and 1999, many of these regional players joined the NDA (or, in the case of the TDP, entered into an electoral alliance with the BJP) for one simple reason: the BJP under the leadership of Atal Behari Vajpayee was in a position to supplement the existing support of these parties. The BJP, at that time, contributed to a significant value addition.

Tragically for the BJP this is no longer the case. Unless the ongoing Assembly election in Uttar Pradesh indicates that the BJP has reversed its steady decline, there is no earthly reason why these regional players will be inclined to enter into a formal relationship with the NDA. Nitish Kumar, a leader who could have associated with the regional bloc, remains with the NDA because an alliance with BJP yields electoral returns in Bihar. Unless the BJP can demonstrate that it counts in the four states, the prospect of any pre-poll alliance with the BJP in 2014 seems remote. In the case of Mamata, operating in a state where the Muslim electorate amounts to nearly 30 per cent, even the hint of any covert association with the BJP carries a grave risk.

It is always hazardous to forecast political developments. However, at the risk of being proven wrong, certain initial conclusions seem unavoidable. First, it is unlikely that the NDA will expand beyond its present strength. This implies that unless the BJP stages a dramatic recovery in Uttar Pradesh, the most that the NDA can hope for in 2014 is anything between 175 and 190 seats. This is likely to make it the biggest bloc in the Lok Sabha but will leave it well short of a majority. It will need the regional bloc to form a government.

Secondly, the question arises: on whose terms will such a government be formed. The NDA contains the Janata Dal (U) which should register a good performance in Bihar. Indeed, either in the form of Nitish Kumar or Sharad Yadav who is the convenor of the NDA, the NDA has an entry point into the regional bloc. But what will be terms of a settlement? Will the BJP stay out of the government to give the proverbial ‘outside support’? Or, will any settlement be thwarted if the BJP insists on having its own Prime Minister, as behoves the leader of the largest party? Alternatively, can the BJP throw up a leader who is acceptable to both the party and the regional leaders?

And, finally, depending on the outcome, what if the regional bloc ups the stakes and demands its own Prime Minister?

Consider all these possibilities and you will realise that Patnaik may have been doing more than having a ball at the expense of the media last Friday.


Sunday Pioneer, February 19, 2012